Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Charlie Cook: Underestimating Giuliani

Cook did and is reconsidering. I think he'll get the nomination.
I have long joked that I would win the Tour de France -- without benefit of steroids -- before the former New York City mayor would win the Republican nomination. Putting aside your mental image of a portly Charlie Cook in black spandex, am I wrong?
My current favorite Web site, which is the home page on my computer, is causing me to rethink my dismissal of Giuliani. That site, pollster.com, is a collaboration of Charles Franklin, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin (Madison) who started politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com, and Mark Blumenthal, a Democratic pollster better known as Mystery Pollster. Blumenthal's site, mysterypollster.com, demystifies the profession and provides great answers and explanations about all things polling.
Since October, Giuliani's trend line has been rising at about a 45-degree angle. Sen. John McCain's has been dropping at a roughly comparable angle. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's line showed a gradual increase until September, then leveled off. And former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's trend line has shown a gradual but consistent increase dating back to late 2004. In state-level polling, Giuliani is in first place -- or tied for first -- almost everywhere.
McCain's VMI speech caused me to recondiser Giuliani a bit. I'm with Kristol about it,
Now we are at a moment of truth. There is McCain's way, a way of difficulty and honor. There is Reid's way, a way of political expediency and dishonor. McCain may lose the political battle at home, and the U.S. may ultimately lose in Iraq. But some of us will always be proud, at this moment of choice, to have stood with McCain, and our soldiers, and our country.
It's hard choice but I think 2008 mayb be Giuliani's year.

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