Tuesday, March 14, 2006

Civil War or Ethnic Cleansing?

Strategy Page on situation in Iraq via Austin Bay,
….The violence has shifted away from American troops, who are suffering 60 percent fewer casualties this month than in the past year. and more towards Iraqi security forces and civilians. Part of this is because there are simply more Iraqi police and soldiers patrolling the streets and policing the neighborhoods. Where there are about two American advisors for every hundred Iraqi security troops, these Americans are there to advise, not fight. And the Iraqis are doing the fighting, and taking the casualties. American troops are still making raids and patrols, but there has also been a sharp decline in terrorist attacks. Some six months of sweeps and battles in western Iraq has shut down many of the Sunni terrorist sanctuaries. Indeed, many al Qaeda terrorists have fled western Iraq for towns and villages on the Iranian border. Iranians don’t like to advertise the fact, but they do provide support to al Qaeda, despite al Qaeda’s attacks on Shias (for being heretics.) Iran would also like to see a civil war (ethnic cleansing of Sunni Arabs) in Iraq. If that were to happen, Shia Arabs would be 75 percent of the Iraqi population, and likely to side with Iran on many issues. ..
There is no potential for Civil War in the way it's been discussed in MSM. It would be the slaughter of Sunni Arab villages. It's not going to happen either. Especially if we check the Iranians from further meddling. Shia Arabs in Iraq not all that sympathetic to Iranians.

2 comments:

gcotharn said...

I agree with your take. I enjoyed visiting your blog.

Bill Baar said...

thanks... nice to hear that.
Bill